Gambling Blogger

First of all I had better explain my self for my lack of posts recently; unfortunately my Internet company decided to cancel our subscription because we upgraded our TV subscription with them, and it will take another week to sort out! I can’t believe it! (did anyone else read that last bit in a Victor Meldrew voice?)

Now I should start with my next apology- an apology for the gloating I am about to impart; who won the Shanghai masters? Novak Djokovic! now I guess you could say that I backed Murray, but I also said spread your bets and include the young serb in those bets. If you listened to me you would be in the reddies right now, but if your anything like me, you probably didn’t bet on it because other things came up- bloody Internet. Before you say anything, I don’t have the time to go to the bookies, and it’s too far

Anyway, as the title suggests I wanted to touch on a theory (don’t worry I wont make it as confusing as some of the texts I read to write this post!) called long shot bias, now this is a theory that bettors over value some bets, and under value others.

For example, on skybet, Chelsea this weekend are favourites against Newcastle at 1/5 (1.2), Newcastle are valued at 14/1 (15), now that sounds worth a punt! With a draw at 5/1 you can see from the probability page that the total probability is 106.67%. Now as long as betting is made as to the true reflection of the value of the bets, the bookmakers will make a small profit (he laughs). However, due to the Risk loving bettors seeing the 14/1 shot and thinking that they can make a lot of money, and quickly, it doesn’t quite work out to the Economist rule.

With these odds, bookmakers expect bettors to gamble £15 on Chelsea to win for every £1.20 placed on Newcastle. However, this is relying on bettors conforming to economic efficiency; which we know to be very untrue. Therefore the odds of the game will change due to the likely hood of each outcome being undervalued or overvalued. So if on average there is £4 being bet on Newcastle for every £15 on Chelsea, the bookmakers may change the odds of each team to get gambling trends towards their targets, and as a result they will make as much as they can. It’s easy to see why they do this, as if for some unknown reason, no one backed Chelsea, and £15 was placed on Newcastle to win, and Newcastle did win, the bookmakers would be out of pocket by £210, and they can’t let that happen as the house always wins!

So the theory is quite simple and the proof is pretty damning, thanks to the progambler for bringing the findings of William Hill to my attention; in their studies they prove that Long shot Bias is a reality as people overvalue or undervalue bets, now this is apparent as more money has been lost by gamblers than should have been.

As you can see from the chart, backing every home and away result would have returned on average a loss of 12.44 pence for every £1 staked. By contrast, backing all home and away prices greater than 2/1 would have lost the punter 16.75 pence for every £1 staked. Betting on all teams with an odds-on price would have lost 9.17 pence. Backing teams at shorter than 1/2 would have lost 4.86 pence for every £1. Now this doesn’t reflect well on gambling, it doesn’t appear there is anyway of winning!

However, there is research proving that in some circumstances that although Longshot Bias is very apparent in the gambling market, Longshot Bias can be mitigated in some circumstances. Paton and Vaughan Williams (1998) research explains that due to the nature of high profile events, such as some Tennis Grand Slams that there is a negative Longshot Bias; they explain that due to the importance, length of game, players experience and the ability to question the umpire, that as long as there is no mitigating circumstances, the favourite is more likely to win. As a result, whether it’s due to sentiment, a lack of clear favourite, or even bragging rights there can be negative Longshot bias where the favourite is backed more than they should be.

Now, I know this post was a bit of a lesson, but I hope you learned a few things; principally that if you bet on the favourite more than on the Longshot you will win more often and lose less, it’s up to you if you can make a profit from it. Take it from me, if you take the stance of a Negative Longshot bias as I do, you can make money from it (I’m up to £240 from my initial £5 investment so far )

Happy days!

As you well know I am a fan of in game betting, but as part of my betting guides that I have been writing (well kind of) I thought this was one huge market to ignore- so I’m not! Asian Handicaps have been gradually introduced by bookmakers in the UK during the past five years, but this concept has been in existence in Far East Asia for approximately a decade. Interesting huh?

It is hard to define, so I will use an example and hope that it explains all.

Bookmakers usually price up Asian Handicaps using multiples of 0.5. The favourite would be minus (-) in the Asian Handicap, while the underdog would be plus (+).

For example, if Chelsea were playing at home against Manchester United, they would be favourites, but the handicap would be minimal given how closely matched the two sides are. The likely Asian handicap odds would be Chelsea -0.5, Man Utd +0.5.

If the score finishes 0-0 Chelsea lose in the handicap. However, Man Utd would win on the Asian Handicap as +0.5 is added to the final score, making the result in 0:+0.5.

If the score finishes 1-0 to Chelsea, the handicap will be drawn and your stake would be refunded as the Asian handicap score would be 0.5-0.5.

However, if the game finishes 2-0 to Chelsea, they will win the handicap as it will be 1.5-0.5 overall on the handicap.

Now if Chelsea has to win by two clear goals for me to lose this bet, it might be worth a bet, it certainly offers more value, and less chance of losing on just betting on a normal outcome market.

There are sometimes split Asian Handicapping (it’s not as confusing as it sounds). For example, the bookies could offer you odds of 0: 1&1 1/2 on Man city Vs. Aston Villa. This means in you bet on Villa to win, and the match finished 1-0 to Man city, half your stake will be refunded as the score would be 1-1 on the handicap, and the other half will return a win, as the other half of the stake were placed on odds of 1-1 1/2 meaning half you bet wins.

I guess you can probably tell by my posts that I like my fractions when betting (just the old school method I guess) but the odds for Asian Handicap are usually based on decimals rather than fractions. So I thought I would post a nice easy method of working it out:

To work out from fraction to decimal: If you have odds of 1/10, add the number together; in this case making 11. Then divide the added number by the second number in the fraction; in this case meaning 11/10. Do that on your calculator (or in your head if it’s nice and easy like this one) and you get 1.1- that’s the decimal!

To work out from a decimal to a  % probability: If you have a decimal odds of 5, you divide it by 100, 100/5= 20, that means it has a 20% probability of occurring, well according to the bookies anyway.

To work out a fraction from a decimal: If you have a decimal of 1.20, divide the second part by 100, giving 100/20 in this case- this gives 5, meaning you have a fraction odds of 1/5.

Simple maths really… But if it is easier, you may as well look as my odds comparison page as an easy referral, you know sometimes I look at it too when I am feeling too lazy to work it out…

So that’s the end of the lesson, I hope it helped, oh I forgot to mention Murray, watch him win - put your bets down now before the odds aren’t worth your time!

Yesterday was a great day, Calzaghe won his fight, I relaxed, bet and watched TV all day; a nice day all round. So what could beat that? Well I tell you, from betting on 4 different football games I won £50, I reached my month’s target (in the 2nd week!) and I have just started my E-book on how to make £5 in to £500 (which I haven’t quite reached yet- but I will!) So everything is looking up at the moment.

But I guess I should apologise, I predicted Fulham Vs. Newcastle to finish less than 2.5 goals, only for there to be 3. I couldn’t believe it! At least I was right about Blackburn Vs Chelsea finishing with less than 2.5 goals scored.

So although, as you well know, I have developed a Football betting technique, I should start to look at other sports to widen my horizons; and I can’t help but look at Murray’s success in the Tennis this year. The young Scots man has beaten Roddick (what has happened to him?), and I can’t help but thinking this is Murray’s season. Now the Shanghai competition is under way and Murray is favourite! Who would have though that at the start of the season? But being favourite doesn’t guarantee anything, and many people are still backing Federer and Djokovic even though they have not been in form recently.

Looking at Federer’s serve today it is obvious he has a bad back, he might even pull out- then again he did lose the first match in this round last year to go on and win the competition. I would suggest it might be worth waiting until Federers next match before backing a winner; if he over comes this injury, or gets enough pain killers to perform, he will be a serious contender.

With many people predicting a Federer, Murray final, it might be worth at this stage betting on these two to win, and with odds of 2/1 (3.0) and 5/2 (3.5) respectively, it might be worth betting £3.33 on Murray and £2.86 on Federer which will result in you winning £10. You may even want to further spread your risk by betting on someone else such as World number 3 Djokovic.

As I said I really think Murray will win, but once again, being a Brit and a fan of Murray,  I guess my judgment is clouded; but you try to find a tip for anyone else!

So we stayed up to watch Calzaghe confidently beat Jones Junior- well I say confidently, going down on the canvas in the first round was probably not part of the plan. For a ’slapper’ he sure gave Jones Jr a nasty cut above the eye, and to be honest, if the fight was in any other country, it probably would have been stopped in the 10th round. So Calzaghe won on points, as I predicted! My god I am good. Then again, I also predicted Man Utd to give Arsenal a lesson this weekend; I can’t believe they won! Nasri was very lucky with his goals, ans Man Utd were poor all over the pitch, once again proving this game is a volatile game to bet on.

I can’t believe how tired I am, I’m watching the Blackburn Vs. Chelsea game and the pitch is so water logged it’s unbelievable, in games like this there will never be any quality football, and I’m going to confidently say that the games today ( in areas with such poor weather) it’s worth betting on 2.5 goals and less from the start. There is no way that any one is going to be up for these games and I suspect most players are wishing they are doing what I am doing now; sitting at home, in the warm, relaxing. Mark my words- especially Fulham Vs. Newcastle- neither team can score anyway!

A short post today- but I’m off to bed!

So once again my Internet has failed me, today it has cost we £14 in winnings, it is starting to annoy me now, I think I am going to get a USB dongle for desperate times. Now I wounder if this is a sign of a gambling addiction?! Maybe I’m being a bit dramatic.

Any way I thought I would make a short post today ahead of a busy day of gambling tomorrow; there are lots of football games, and a busy night of boxing (can’t wait for Calzaghe Vs. Jones!) The Welsh boxer (born in London) finale boxing match against one of the best pound for pound boxers of all time, the question is, is Roy Jones Junior too old? Well I think the best heavy weight boxers have been just as old, Lennox Lewis was 38 when he beat Klitscko. Although this isn’t the same weight division, being 39 doesn’t mean he is too old, and as they say, class never leaves, and as long as Jones has kept in shape he has a very good chance of winning. Also remember, Calzaghe last fight against Hopkins was far from his performance against Jeff Lacy, in fact early on he was put on the floor in the first round for the second time in his career. Calzaghe’s last 5 bouts have gone the distance (I don’t count the debacle against Manfredo- he was completely out of his league), and Jones has only been knocked out twice in his career (last time was in 2004).

As a result I am betting on Calzaghe (although here I have once again gone against my own rules; betting on my own team- what can I say I am a fan of him, even though he was born in England and calls himself welsh). I am betting on the victory going to a decision, and if I have to make a choice, probably unanimous. However, for odds of 8/13 (1.16) it isn’t really inspiring, that’s why with one of my 4 free £5 bets from skybet I have actually bet against what I think will happen (remember I also said don’t always bet on the media favourite) and have bet on a Jones Victory, now I don’t think it will happen, but it won’t cost me anything as it’s a free bet and I have a chance to win £22.50 with odds of 7/2 (4.5).

So there you go, my commercial mind has ruled my heart; maybe my betting skills are improving- at last!!!!

So I spent a lot of time yesterday trying to work out the maths behind the equation, I think I finally got to understand it, and then what happens? Manchester United 1-1 Celtic, I didn’t win a thing! I should have known this would never work out; especially when you see that only one English team has ever beaten Celtic at Celtic Park in the Champions League. I suppose it didn’t help Man Utd rested Rooney and Berbatov (2 of their best players in my humble opinion) ahead of the Arsenal game at the weekend- speaking of which Arsenal were awful, my tip is for Man Utd to win 2-1 (why can’t Man Utd keep a clean sheet?!) that’s 9/1 or 10. for the decimal fans, and with a 3-1 score line attracting a 20/1 or 21. it might be worth a punt.

So i’m sticking to my guns of betting on dead certs, and it is still working, I still haven’t lost (and hopefully won’t :-S) and I am still on course to reach my target of £100 for this month. It was after soul searching, fireworks and beer (not necessarily in that order) I have decided on my further long term target. If I can keep it going, I plan to get to the £500 mark, and at this point I will take out any winnings and put it in to a bank account, this means I will not bet more that £500 on a game and I will stop snowballing my winnings. Now I know this seems quite wimpy (well I don’t think betting £500 on a football game is wimpy) but I think there needs to be a safeguard in place, when I lose the money-which will happen, if it’s because of my stupidity or just bad luck, it will happen, I want some winnings kept to one side so I can continue betting with my profits.

So there we go, once I get to the stage of betting £500 on a game, I will be winning about £50 a day, this means I could get another £500 in 10 days, in which case as long as I win 10 out of 11 times I will be in profit. If this works I could do this professionally- my Dad will be so proud!

I could have not been angrier last night, I was ready to place my bets, ready to gamble my little heart out and my Internet went down, it cost me £10 in winnings, I am gutted! If I could have ran to the bookies head office and put the bet on in person I would have- if it wasn’t for the beer in my hand and my crippling apathy that is! So tonight I hope, I prey my Internet will hold up so I can put a couple of bets on.

So I have looked around looking for people’s tips for tonight, and I stumbled upon a blog which looks well thought out (just like mine I know) where they have found an offer which simply can’t be missed, what a clever chap! Anyway, here it is:

PageBet will refund all losing correct score and first goalscorer bets in the Manchester United v Celtic game if Manchester United fail to win the game.

Now, this is where you have to be tactical, realistically what are the possible scores going to be? Well KLS betting (who drew this offer to my attention) reckon that the following scores are the more likely:

Manchester United 1-0 11/2 £26.15
Manchester United 2-0 6/1 £24.28
Manchester United 2-1 7/1 £21.25
Manchester United 3-0 11/1 £14.16
Manchester United 3-1 11/1 £14.16

They have worked out if the total stake of £100 (as distributed above), any win will make you £69.96 profit. If its a draw or Celtic win you get your money back. Only way you can lose is if, Man U score 4 or more goals or its 3-2, now this is unlikely- but it can happen and in which case you will lose big. If this is too rich for your blood, you could test this out by only betting a tenth of this and still make some profits along the way.

Now I know this news might be coming too late for you, so here is the math behind it so you can work it out on any game:

This is the equation
B1 x O1 = B2 x O2
However, B2 = T - B1, so substitute in
B1 x O1 = (T - B1) x O2

When you solve this for B1, you’re left with B1 = TO2 / (O1-O2), where:
T = Total stake £100
B1 = Stake on correct score #1
B2 = Stake on correct score #2
O1 = Odds of correct score #1
O2 = Odds of correct score #2

Confused? The equation for three or more selections is slightly more complicated, but it’s just an extension of the above equation. When you have three selections, you first perform the equation for two of them – that is, you find the combined odds, and then use those odds with the third odds, and so on for four selections.

Thanks total gambler for clearing that one up for us, they do however say they have a downloadable excel sheet in their forums which will do the maths for us- I couldn’t find it anywhere, so if anyone can find it I would be grateful if you could let me know where it is

Now I might give this a go, and I’m not too sure on the maths, I will try to get my head around it. But this maths should not only be reserved for games where if the other team wins, or it is a draw you get you money refunded. If you find a game which in no shadow of a doubt will end up with only one team winning (as if it is ever guaranteed) you could apply the same maths, but it is not so much of a guarantee. This is something else I will start to bet on over the upcoming weeks to see how successful it is, and how good I am at judging games where there can only be one winner! Hmmm….

As I have mentioned before I like to bet large amounts on dead certs, this way I reduce the risk, even at the cost of low returns, and so far as I have reported I am doing quite well with it; I have ten folded my initial investment in under two weeks at the time of writing this.

So although I haven’t proved any longevity in my technique, I have certainly proved that it works in the short time. So why don’t other people do it? From looking at other people’s gambling blogs they give you tips on long odds, which could well be a great tip for making you lots of money for not much (does accumulators come in to mind?)

Blogs such as Monkey Golf suggest bets (which from what he says he will place, and not only suggests you should place), which are as long as 100/1, now I haven’t seen his finance reports, but the question remains is it better to look for the longer odds than to bet large on the smaller ones? Well his tip of Jason Day to win the Ginn sur Mer Classic on the PGA tour, unfortunately this time his odds were justified when he placed 121st, however, at these odds is it worth the risk?

At the moment I am betting £50 on a football game to win on average £4 return,  with the odds of 100-1, you would only need to bet 4p to get the same return, this sounds like a no brainer, but then again, how many 100-1 long shots win, and if you bet on the longer odds with the ultra low stake, could you make more with this technique?

I am going to start looking at betting on sports where there is a true outsider, such as golf etc. where there are many participants, rather than sports which are one on one such as football. I will bet the lowest value I can on outsiders as suggested on blogs; therefore I guess I am testing how good their tips are, and how rewarding betting on outsiders are. Looks like I am about to find a new found interest in Golf- oh dear!

So my first month of gambling- (I know I only started this last week), but I guess I should start documenting my vast income, I say vast I mean medium sizes, I say medium sized I  mean minuscule amounts, damn it.

So in the month of October I have lost £2 in bets- my first bet at the start of this blog, otherwise I have put the £5 in the live betting where I have gone on to win £42 from, not that impressive at the moment, but if I have managed to get to this stage with £5, where will I be at the end of next month starting off with £42? I hope as a very happy boy!

October earnings

My plan for the end of September is to have £100 in this account by not adding any more money to it, I will start to diversify my bets, but I will still not be risky with it.

Unfortunately I have been away today so I haven’t been able to bet on today’s games- Real Madrid drew 1-1 and would have been an ideal game to bet on. I missed the Grand Prix, Hamilton did well to win, but from what I here it was a nervy affair, it would have been worse if I had bet on it. But there we go, I guess I can’t win them all, or even be available to bet on them all, and that is the problem with my tactic; you need to spend a lot of time monitoring the sports. At least so far it is paying off with a £35 profit.

To describe what I have done so far I guess I would say I have stumbled across my topics, not really having a direction, but somehow still having something to say. Well I thought I would clarify my plans just so you know

I plan on bogging on what is in the media at any given time, for instance if there is a big Grand Prix - e.g. any of them, I will look at betting on that, if there is a big boxing match on, such as Joe Calzaghe’s fights, I will look at boxing gambling. However, it has appeared I have only talked about football so far- that’s not because it’s the only sport I know (honest!) but because it’s the only sport that has been going on recently (apart from early rounds of tennis and strange Cricket games that baffle me at the moment). so far in the early days of this blog.

The problem, or maybe advantage, I have found with a gambling blog is there aren’t many around, there are loads of gambling sites with no communities, and loads of generic blogs where the communities probably wont be as interested in gambling talk, but more interested in where that blogger ate last night for dinner. I guess it is up to me to start building a community and a following- this is harder than the gambling part of this blog!

So last night was my first night off gambling since I started this blog; i got to admit, I think I am starting to get hooked, I wanted to bet but I went to go see the new James Bond film- which was really good I got to say, it’s going to be a big film. Anyway, I have a house party tonight, and all I can think about is making some time in it to make a bet on tonight’s games. I have never been in the situation where I have won so many times in a row, and without the disappointment it losing, I have only had the highs of winning as my recent gambling experiences, so why wouldn’t I want to carry on?

I think for my own safety, I will have to cut back my gambling, I will carry on blogging, researching, and getting tips for you, but testing the theories will be spread over time so I don’t get too addicted; I say that now, I will be betting all over the weekend, and this is why I bet small, even winning small for fills my urges, but if I lose, when I lose, I wont be fiscally hurt, and this is probably the best tip you can get, (sorry for the cliche)- bet what you can afford to lose, and not a penny more!